Updated November 2024
People often want to know what their cask is going to be worth in the future. Unfortunately whether it’s five, ten or eight years ahead, the future value of a cask is impossible to predict with any kind of accuracy. This is part of the reason we don’t give expected return on investment rates.
Even Warren Buffett, who is widely considered one of the most successful investors in the world, does not make predictions about the future value of stocks. With casks you have even more potential for future spread in value because of the natural variation in evaporation rates between different casks.
What we can do is give you an insight into previous and historical performances of casks that our customers have bought and then sold alongside examples of average evaporation rates. These can then be used to decide whether or not the investment is for you.
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Variation In Evaporation
All casks experience a drop in the total volume of liquid and alcoholic volume (ABV) while they are maturing. This is an inherent vice of cask maturation and is why they’re classed as a wasting asset.
You will often see the average quoted as 2%, but between 1% and 4% per year is a more representative spread and the reality is that the rate will vary year to year. It will also vary within a warehouse.
To give a very simplified idea of how that variation can impact a cask over time lets look at a hypothetical 250 litre hogshead. After 18 years a 1% evaporation rate leaves just over 208 total litres versus just under 120 total litres at 4% per year. If we use an average drop in ABV of 0.5% per year, then at 18 years old the ABV would be around 56.9%, which in turn gives a range of between 118.8 or 68.2 litres of alcohol at 18 years.
We can then use a safe average price per litre of alcohol (the industry standard way of calculating value) of £150 to give an average value of a hogshead at 18 years old as £10,230 to £17,820.
The above are all based on working averages, you can get higher and lower rates in total evaporation and change in ABV. The point is to show that the difference caused by the varying rates of evaporation can cause significant differences over time. The differences at the extremes of those ranges also increase.
Also, not all 18 year old casks of whisky are worth £150 per litre. The differences caused by the variations between brands can cause even more significant variations over time.
Brand Over Age
Age is the reliable driver of value for whisky casks. The other major factor is the brand of that distillery. The examples we will run through are from Bruichladdich, Springbank, The Macallan and Tobermory. These are casks that we have regularly sold and that have gone through differing trajectories in terms of cask value.
Bruichladdich
Casks of Bruichladdich were sold to the public just after the distillery was reopened in the early 2000s. Bruichladdich did this as a way to generate short term revenue to fund the distillery between approximately 2002 and 2012. The private cask ownership scheme stopped just before the distillery was sold to Rémy Cointreau.
Bruichladdich hogsheads could be purchased in the mid-2000s for around £1,500, that cask would now be worth in the region of £7,500 to £15,000 depending on the cask type and remaining litres of whisky.
Springbank
Springbank closed during the 1980s and when they reopened in the 1990s they promoted a cask ownership scheme as a way to create short-term revenue while new stock was maturing. Leaflets were included in bottles of Springbank throughout the 90s encouraging drinkers to purchase casks. Casks were available from 1991 up to the year 2000.
In 2000 a hogshead of Springbank would have cost you in the region of £1,500 and today a 2000 cask of Springbank is worth in the region of £60,000 to £200,000 depending on cask size, cask type and remaining litres of whisky.
The Macallan
In the late 1990s Macallan casks were available through a broker in London called Cavendish wines. These casks were slightly older than the previous two and in 1996 you could buy a cask of 1990 Macallan for around £3,000 pounds; this was a little more than the others (and actually there is a longer story there, but as you will see below it has a happy ending).
A cask of The Macallan 1990 is now worth in the region of £150,000 to £800,000 depending on cask size, cask type and remaining litres of whisky.
*Note: this Macallan example is 10-15 years older than the previous examples from Bruichalddich and Springbank so we have included an example from Tobermory for a more direct comparison.
Tobermory
Cavendish wines also sold casks of Tobermory of similar vintage to the Macallan casks; circa 1990 to 1995, and these were sold for around £1,500.
Tobermory casks comparatively aged to the Macallan example above are worth in the region of £10,000 to £15,000 pounds.
Age versus brand
The key takeaway from the examples above, and why we do not make predictions, is that the future value can vary dramatically and that it is not the age of the whisky that is the major driver of value. Instead brand and fill level cause significant variation over time.
The Bruchalddich and Springbank casks are of a comparable age but differ markedly in price. That difference is even more striking between the Tobermory and Macallan casks.
The major driver for the variations in value between these examples is not age or fill level, but the branding and market position. It was the investment by the distillery into the distillery’s brand and the public perception of that brand’s worth, which has ultimately been the driving force behind the huge gains seen for some casks. We cannot predict what distilleries are going to invest in their brand, or if it would work. What we can, and do look for, is markers that may indicate investment into a distillery and its brand in the future.
These are the kinds of indicators that we look for when we are helping you buy a cask of whisky: We look at the parent companies behind the brand and what else they are doing and have done, and we look at the performance of other brands owned by those parent companies. In addition we look for indicators that suggest potential brand repositioning and markers that indicate the brand is currently in wide circulation but flying under the radar, giving it good potential for the future.
Summary
When you buy a cask with Mark Littler LTD we do not just offer you a list of all the casks that are available right now. Anything we put forward has been hand curated by us to ensure we are offering you casks from distilleries where we see potential.
We cannot, and do not predict what your cask will be worth in the future. We cannot predict how your cask will increase in value over five, ten or fifteen years and as such we will not give you arbitrary per annum return figures.
What we can, and do provide are previous examples from a variety of distilleries to demonstrate how strikingly values can vary, how the age of a cask only plays a minor role in the performance of the value over time, and how important branding is on that future value.
We also provide you with a detailed rationale behind each cask explaining why it makes a good purchase in our opinion, giving you industry insight you are probably not aware of and objective facts, figures and sources which you can check independently. This way you can make a considered decision as to which cask you think is a good match to your needs.
If you would like more information on buying a cask with Mark Littler Ltd then please use the form above to download our buying guide and find out more about the casks we have available.
